Things appear to be heating up fast once again with regard to Iran. Israel seems convinced that Iran`s nuclear ambitions are not for peaceful purposes and this sentiment seems to be strongly held by the Bush administration. The rhetoric has ratcheted up significantly in the last week and many sources within Israel say it`s a matter of when, not if. The best guest according to defense experts is sometime before the November U.S. election or shortly thereafter. The strategy for Israel is that this will be a crucial window where they can count on U.S. support from the Bush administration as well as Congress and both candidates. The pressure will be to present the image that each candidate is "tougher on Terror" than the other. What still remains in question is what extend, if any, the U.S. will become involved "hands on" with any attack.
Regardless of who, when or why, OPEC minsters predict or perhaps "threaten" is a better word that world oil prices will surge to $400 a barrel. Translated, that equals about $15 U.S a gallon at the pump for refined gasoline; possibly more as the US dollar keeps dropping in value. The impacts of this on not just America, but on world energy prices, have economists alarmed over the real possibility of a severe global economic depression unlike anything the world has seen. Already, the world markets are tanking as a result of the recent record high of $141 a Barrel on Friday. Every exchange across the globe lost double digit values by closing on Friday.
San Francisco Sentinel
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HOW WILL U.S. REACT IF ISRAEL ATTACKS IRAN
27 June 2008
The presence of U.S. forces in Iraq, like these F-14B Tomcats, means that Israel would
require a U.S. green light to fly in and attack Iran
BY RON KAMPEAS
As the question of an Israeli attack on Iran edges from if toward when, a new question looms: What would the United States do?
The question is preoccupying not just the White House but the Obama and McCain presidential campaigns, although neither would address the matter on the record.
A number of neoconservatives in Washington, known for their closeness to the Israeli defense establishment, now predict that Israel may strike between the election in November and the inauguration of the next president on Jan. 21, if only because that’s a time when Israel can count on U.S. support.
“Israel would be unlikely to do it before the U.S. election,” said John Bolton, the former U.S. ambassador to the United Nations who is close to the pro-Israel community in the capital. “But after the election and before the inauguration would be a window.”
Israeli officials will not name a date, but some have grown more pronounced in recent weeks about the increased prospect of a strike should Iran develop nuclear weapons capability.
“A year from now Iran will be very, very close to the completion of its first nuclear bomb,” Ephraim Sneh, a member of Israel’s ruling coalition, said earlier this month at the annual American Israel Public Affairs Committee policy conference. “I may predict that there is — will be no government in Jerusalem which would allow it to happen.”
Asked to predict what the buzz would be at the May 2009 AIPAC policy conference, Sneh said, “If we are alone we will have to act alone. This will be the subject of May ’09.”
Shaul Mofaz, the Israeli transportation minister, said this month that an attack would be “unavoidable” if Iran had the bomb. As Mofaz also is the top Israeli negotiator in the U.S.-Israeli strategic dialogue, his remark suggested that he is confident of U.S. support for an Israeli attack.
Bolton says that is not an unreasonable conclusion with the current administration.
“From past policies, they know that Bush holds a favorable view of Israel’s right to self defense,” Bolton said of Israeli officials.
Israel’s closeness to Bush has led Bolton and fellow neoncons such as William Kristol to predict that Israel may time its strike before Inauguration Day on Jan. 21, 2009, particularly if U.S. Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.), the putative Democratic nominee, wins the presidency.
“The thing that makes an Israeli strike more likely is when any U.S. politician gets up and says Iran can be contained,” said Michael Rubin, a colleague of Bolton’s at the American Enterprise Institute and an alumnus of the Bush administration’s Pentagon policy unit on Iran.
Obama argues for tough diplomacy with Iran — carrots of engagement backed up by sticks of increased sanctions — and insists that such diplomacy may yet contain the threat of a nuclear Iran.
Even in the case of a victory by Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.), who has adopted a posture on Iran closer to that of the Bush administration, Israel is likelier to trust the backing of the Bush administration in case of a strike, Bolton said.
Full story: Source
New York Times Story
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Quote:
OPEC president predicts oil price at level of $400 per barrel
Baku, Fineko/abc.az. Yesterday the price of oil per barrel at the New York Mercantile Exchange exceeded $140 and reached $140.39 per barrel at the moment of closing of bids.
Khabib Khalil, the president of Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, stated in this connection that before the end of the summer the oil price can grow up to $170 per barrel in case the European Central Bank increases the rate.
“Price of oil, gold and other primary goods rose after American Federal Reserve System stopped increasing its rate. Dollar fall under such conditions leads to rise in prices for raw materials at the market. Moreover, in the future oil price can jump up to $200 and even up to $400 per barrel if political crisis with Iran leads to stoppage of oil production in this country,” Khalil said.
Recently the European Union has toughened sanctions against Iran because of suspicion of military purposefulness of its nuclear program.
Against the background of the latest events US Congress’s attempts to investigate wildcatters’ intrigues in growth of oil prices are going to become inefficient as well as Saudi Arabia’s investments ($1 bn) in the fund of oil price growth compensation.
Source
Details reported in Bloomberg
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So, whether you agree or disagree with attacking Iran, one thing is clear, the American and indeed the world`s middle class is totaly fucked. Regardless of what happens, it looks like $5.00 to $10.00 a gallon gas is here to stay and you are already starting to feel the effects even if you don`t drive. Food and every other comodity is up, taxes will have to go up to maintain current levels of services such as police and fire due to higher fuel costs. Even the power companies are hiking electricity rates as fuel surcharges for their operations. One thing to me is clear and that our way of life is about to drastically and irrevocably change.