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Old 07-18-2011, 11:17 AM   #1 (permalink)
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Winter Weather Forecast 2011-2012 | Another extreme winter for many parts of the US | Ski and Snowboard Blog

Oh yeah!

Another extreme winter for many parts of the US


US Long Range Winter Weather Forecast 2011-2012


The coldest winter in 30 years was recorded across many parts of the US during the 2010-2011 winter. Eastern parts of the US plunged to a record -50F with the Northeast of the US also seeing records broken. Temperatures was also largely below normal averages for New York, Chicago, New Orleans, and Minneapolis. Snowstorms shattered New York City in December 2010 and January 2011 to become the snowiest January ever recorded.


So let’s turn to the US winter of 2011/2012.


La Niņa cools the equatorial seas of the Pacific and was one of the strongest on record during 2010/2011. Less warm air rises during La Niņa conditions with a cooling influence on the atmosphere that has big implications on global climate and global weather patterns. The changes in global weather patterns come from air pressure changes in atmospheric cycles called the North Atlantic Oscillation (NOA) and Arctic Oscillation (AO).


The latest National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) update suggests neutral conditions ahead, but a negative Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) may yet suggest otherwise. The PDO is a pattern of Pacific climate variance that recently switched to negative (cold) and will remain that way for the next two to three decades. It is likely that La Niņa will return more frequently during this time period as a negative PDO results in stronger La Niņa (cooling) and weaker El Niņo (warming) episodes.


Low solar activity is also a primary driver of atmospheric cycles that influence blocking activity patterns/ridges.


Our weather models consider all of these factors and are currently showing a particularly harsh winter for many parts of the US during 2011-2012. Large parts of Central and North America will face below average temperatures with above average snowfall throughout this winter, with temperatures in many Eastern and Western parts also showing as below average with above average snowfall amounts.


We expect the Pacific Northwest region to experience a very severe winter and the Cascades snowpack is likely to see increased levels due to the negative (cold) phase of PDO. Our weather models are also showing an increased likelihood for major snow events in Northeastern and Midwestern parts of the US throughout December 2011 and January 2012, that could see severe blizzard conditions hit New York City and Chicago.


With low solar activity levels, the negative Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and the general trend for a much colder winter after the onset of last year’s La Niņa, this winter could prove to be a record breaker with extremely cold temperatures and exceptional levels of snow for many parts of the US.


www.ExactaWeather.com
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Old 07-18-2011, 12:33 PM   #2 (permalink)
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We expect the Pacific Northwest region to experience a very severe winter and the Cascades snowpack is likely to see increased levels due to the negative (cold) phase of PDO.
Woo-hoo!!!!!!
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Old 07-18-2011, 12:35 PM   #3 (permalink)
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...Northeastern and Midwestern parts of the US throughout December 2011 and January 2012, that could see severe blizzard conditions hit New York City and Chicago.
Me likey
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Old 07-18-2011, 01:07 PM   #4 (permalink)
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Roaaaaad Trip!
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Old 07-18-2011, 02:08 PM   #5 (permalink)
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This is what they told us for the Upper Midwest 10/11 and it is not what we got. Slightly colder temps, average was 30* for 2 months straight and below average snowfalls.
I am so hoping for cold earlier and more snowfalls.
Lets see if they are correct for this year.
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Old 07-18-2011, 04:56 PM   #6 (permalink)
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The weather in N. Idaho last winter sucked ass, it did this crappy cycle over and over again. It would snow, get warm and rain, and then get cold - which meant either you were stomping through slush or skating on ice. I wonder what they mean by extreme weather in the PNW, as in lots of snow, really cold, or both?

Would much rather have a cold and snowy winter then the droopy shit I had to deal with last year.
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Old 07-18-2011, 06:07 PM   #7 (permalink)
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YES!!!! That sounds like great news! Come on mother nature, Blast the whole north west!!!
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Old 07-19-2011, 06:25 AM   #8 (permalink)
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Winter Weather Forecast 2011-2012 | Another extreme winter for many parts of the US | Ski and Snowboard Blog

We expect the Pacific Northwest region to experience a very severe winter and the Cascades snowpack is likely to see increased levels due to the negative (cold) phase of PDO. Exacta Weather
This past season was generally fine and ended up with a 280" base at the end of the season, but if it had been 3 degrees colder we would have been in the really big poo.
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Old 07-19-2011, 05:37 PM   #9 (permalink)
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not sure what this means for socal. although i dont think it can be any worse than what we had last year
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Old 07-19-2011, 05:45 PM   #10 (permalink)
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I really hope its better than last year. Half the year we had nothing...
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