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Old 01-18-2012, 08:13 PM   #1 (permalink)
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Default Lake Tahoe snowstorm.

Two days away from our annual Tahoe trip. What's the latest on the weather Tahoe faithful? What are we looking at lake level? Am I going to need snow chains coming from the Reno airport?
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Old 01-18-2012, 08:29 PM   #2 (permalink)
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Bring chains- you have amazing timing- it's been horrible here but we're about to get our first storms since before Thanksgiving.

Tahoe Weather Discussion - No Hype Lake Tahoe Weather is usually spot on. Here's their latest report-
That’s the NWS 8000 ft. forecast for Squaw Valley which calls for 2-3+ feet through Friday night.

The trend of the models today is to delay the onset of the precipitation until later on Thursday and to lower snow levels a little. I have been looking at the so many runs of the forecast models today my eyes are starting to cross. It looks like we are all set for some good snow over the next 7 days starting Thursday.

Are you getting excited watching the snow falling up in the Pacific NW on the news or TWC? It looks like the first flakes will fly by Thursday afternoon even down to lake level. Most of the models keep the snow levels close to lake level into Friday morning, maybe just above near 6500 ft. By Friday morning we are looking for around 2-4 inches at lake level with possible mix with rain, 3-6 inches above 6500 ft., 6-9 above 7000 ft., and 9-12 along the crest.

A bigger storm moves in on Friday lasting into Saturday with lots of subtropical moisture. This storm is not looking as massive as a couple days ago but still lots of precip. Some model disagreement on the total liquid with the GFS models showing 1-2 inches and the Euro & NAM showing 2-3. Also some disagreement on the snow levels with the GFS maxing out around 7000 ft., the Euro 7500 ft., and the NAM keeps snow levels close to lake level the whole event. Let’s shoot for the middle at 7000 ft.

That is better than the 8000 ft. plus they were showing yesterday. Assuming those snow levels and splitting taking the precip average we could pick up 1-2 feet above 7000 ft. with 2-3 feet along the crest by Saturday night. That brings the storm totals to 18-30 inches above 7000 ft. through Saturday night and 30-48 inches along the crest. At lake level we should see rain that washes away the few inches we saw on Thursday and then as snow levels crash Saturday morning we could pickup several inches during the day.

Sunday we have another big storm that is colder with snow levels down to lake level. This storm looks like it could bring 1-2 feet to all elevations and another 2-3 feet up along the crest. Then there is another storm for Tuesday into Wednesday that could bring several inches or more. Total liquid through next Wednesday on the Euro is 4-5 inches over the basin and 5-6 along the crest. Here is the GFS model through next Wednesday showing 3-4 inches over Tahoe and 4-6 inches along th crest.Looking at Saturday morning and beyond for lake level it looks like there could be 18 inches up to 3 feet. Above 7000 ft. we could see 7 day totals of 3-5 feet, and up along the crest we could see 4-7 feet.

These amounts could still increase or decrease but that is the best estimate as of today’s model runs. The short term amounts through Saturday are a little more certain and amounts for Sunday and next week are less certain as they are beyond the 5 day range.
Things look like they could start to dry out by next Thursday as the trough in the Northeast Pacific digs to the South and West turning the jet stream aim just to the North of Tahoe. With the negative PNA however the storms may not stay away for too long. Stay tuned for continued updates as the storms get closer.
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Old 01-18-2012, 08:57 PM   #3 (permalink)
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The west is just getting pounded this week! That includes Tahoe
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Old 01-18-2012, 09:10 PM   #4 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bostonshayne76 View Post
Two days away from our annual Tahoe trip. What's the latest on the weather Tahoe faithful? What are we looking at lake level? Am I going to need snow chains coming from the Reno airport?
Bring them...but I don't think it will stick much at lake level.


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Old 01-18-2012, 09:26 PM   #5 (permalink)
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Well some might say that my luck is amazing this year but I just call it "waaaaay past due" for two years we came in December. Was told "we always have snow by now but not yet this year" then last year I was told to make our Xmas trip be at big bear because they would be pretty much guaranteed to have snow there for Xmas. Soooo we went to big bear and it was dry as hell not a flake. So this year we decided to come back to Tahoe but s month later. I've been watching the weather for a month in disbelief thinking I have jinxed this poor town again lol. Every year I promise the kids snow and they get shot down hardcore. Then all of a sudden about 4 days ago I hear about this big storm coming. Lol so you can kinda see why I have been on pins and needles all week. I'm originally from Boston where snow was plentiful all winter. Now live in Phoenix and believe me the only snow we see is on the news. So I am literally watching the weather report every hour and praying like heck that we hit the snow jackpot
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Old 01-18-2012, 10:32 PM   #6 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bostonshayne76 View Post
Well some might say that my luck is amazing this year but I just call it "waaaaay past due" for two years we came in December. Was told "we always have snow by now but not yet this year" then last year I was told to make our Xmas trip be at big bear because they would be pretty much guaranteed to have snow there for Xmas. Soooo we went to big bear and it was dry as hell not a flake. So this year we decided to come back to Tahoe but s month later. I've been watching the weather for a month in disbelief thinking I have jinxed this poor town again lol. Every year I promise the kids snow and they get shot down hardcore. Then all of a sudden about 4 days ago I hear about this big storm coming. Lol so you can kinda see why I have been on pins and needles all week. I'm originally from Boston where snow was plentiful all winter. Now live in Phoenix and believe me the only snow we see is on the news. So I am literally watching the weather report every hour and praying like heck that we hit the snow jackpot

Last year we had 6 feet by now! Was a stellar season...Kirkwood opened the 24th of November with 4 feet plus of pure powder. This year sucks so far...I am really counting on this first storm.
Generally Tahoe gets snow around or after December.
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Old 01-19-2012, 10:09 AM   #7 (permalink)
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Well lets all keep praying then. Shitty thing is so far from what I am hearing this morning its looking mostly like rain unless something changes.
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Old 01-19-2012, 10:50 AM   #8 (permalink)
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I'll be hitting up Alpine today..maybe squaw..hopefully they don't shut down the summit due to high winds...from weatherunderground

Today Chance of snow in the morning...then snow and rain in the afternoon. Snow accumulation up to 1 inch...with 1 to 3 inches above 7000 feet. Highs 40 to 50. Southwest winds 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 40 mph increasing to 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 55 mph in the afternoon. Ridge gusts up to 75 mph increasing to 110 mph in the
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Old 01-19-2012, 11:17 AM   #9 (permalink)
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i am so jealous of what you guys are getting or will be getting, i need to move out west because east SUCKS for boarding.
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Old 01-19-2012, 01:36 PM   #10 (permalink)
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7 of us are leaving sunday for Tahoe. I have been doing snow dances for a month now. I hope the forecast stays true.

Most resorts are only 20% open now if at all. If 2-4' of snow falls over the next few days, how much terrain will they get open for next week?
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