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post #11 of 42 (permalink) Old 03-23-2012, 12:53 AM
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Originally Posted by ThunderChunky View Post
How can this happen with a guide. I know avies can strike anyone, anytime. But it seems like this still shouldn't have happened. I know next to nothing about the BC though so........
Your first thought is actually one of the first traps and mistakes of being in the back country. Heuristic traps, as in, the guide's common sense is not the final common sense. It is one part of the decision making process. You cannot solely rely on one person for guidance. If you go out with a guide like that, you are fucked.

No guide is above the mountain and the snow. No one, nor an expert has ALL the answers, nor can be right all the time.

As Jeremy Jones says, in the backcountry " no one is above the law".

Shit happens that no one can predict.

If someone goes out riding in the BC and thinks they will find 100% certainty, stick to ping pong in the safety of your home.
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post #12 of 42 (permalink) Old 03-23-2012, 07:26 AM
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Ya, I know it is unpredictable and the knowledge and skills won't go as far as chance and luck. But I'm not saying that the guide should have stopped this, I'm saying that if this was a backcountry thing set up by a company then it shouldn't have happened if the risks was high. The company should've assessed the situation and weighed the risks. Then if it was too much, cancel the trip. What I'm wondering is this just one of those freak accidents, or was the situation to risky to ride and it was pushed anyway.

I'm by no means a backcountry guy, just thought that if a company is in charge of your trip they would assess the risks a little more heavily, but I'm not saying that's what happened. Just saying if that is what happened.

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Im all for having fun, showing your tits and getting fucked up on a river float but it can be done without being a pig.
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post #13 of 42 (permalink) Old 03-23-2012, 08:54 AM
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Condolences to the family. But it happens...infact folks pay big $ to take calculated risk. On my day of death (if could be determined) would gladly pay $1500 for a heli day...than sitting at home and calling an ambulance to go in a hospital and dying there...which would cost a whole lot more.

Another way to look at it: Riding inbounds or bc...how many times have you should or could have died or mamed yourself and didn't. I am quite frankly amazed everyday that I haven't been carried off the hill in a bucket...there have been several events that I should have been. I guess if you're going to die...you might as well be enjoying yourself or helping others to enjoy themselves.

To add riding at a hill that has significant avy/bc danger, has very easy bc access and in the past few years the folks doing the bc stuff has exploded...it is wickedly secductive...worse than sex or drugs. Evidenced from this past Wed., 20-30 minute hike from the lift...look at the lines.


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post #14 of 42 (permalink) Old 03-23-2012, 09:59 AM
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Originally Posted by ThunderChunky View Post
Ya, I know it is unpredictable and the knowledge and skills won't go as far as chance and luck. But I'm not saying that the guide should have stopped this, I'm saying that if this was a backcountry thing set up by a company then it shouldn't have happened if the risks was high. The company should've assessed the situation and weighed the risks. Then if it was too much, cancel the trip. What I'm wondering is this just one of those freak accidents, or was the situation to risky to ride and it was pushed anyway.
Yeah this is my point too. I keep hearing about avalanche warnings for the Alberta/BC border area, and then a few days later somebody dies. I don't know if the Nelson, BC area was under a warning at the time...
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post #15 of 42 (permalink) Old 03-23-2012, 11:57 AM
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Originally Posted by ThunderChunky View Post
Ya, I know it is unpredictable and the knowledge and skills won't go as far as chance and luck. But I'm not saying that the guide should have stopped this, I'm saying that if this was a backcountry thing set up by a company then it shouldn't have happened if the risks was high. The company should've assessed the situation and weighed the risks. Then if it was too much, cancel the trip. What I'm wondering is this just one of those freak accidents, or was the situation to risky to ride and it was pushed anyway.

I'm by no means a backcountry guy, just thought that if a company is in charge of your trip they would assess the risks a little more heavily, but I'm not saying that's what happened. Just saying if that is what happened.
Yep, they measured the risk, and they either
a. missed something

b. got everything right, but chance caught up with them.

which equals nothing you mentioned about "Should" or "expert" or "company". If you choose to play with mother nature, you assume the risks.

What is more important, is making sure you know how to feel your own instinct, know how to pull the plug on a perfect day of pow, and remember that feeling of NOT HITTING THAT RIDGE of it does not feel right.

Jeremy Jones said they are turned back 50% of the time.

Imagine, 50% of your days on the hill, and the choices you make you cannot hit them. It is a big change from the blind security of "the company or expert will protect me".
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post #16 of 42 (permalink) Old 03-23-2012, 12:03 PM
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b. got everything right, but chance caught up with them.
One of my pet peeves is that people don't understand statistics. "Low probability" doesn't mean "won't happen". A one percent chance means that one time out of 100, it probably WILL happen. So unless what you're doing is 100% safe, accept that sometimes things will go south.


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post #17 of 42 (permalink) Old 03-23-2012, 12:11 PM
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One of my pet peeves is that people don't understand statistics. "Low probability" doesn't mean "won't happen". A one percent chance means that one time out of 100, it probably WILL happen. So unless what you're doing is 100% safe, accept that sometimes things will go south.
Yeah I hear ya. I'm going to go back to my ice analogy. Mainly because ice conditions and snow pack conditions are weather dependant, and unpredictable, but can be checked with tools, knowledge, etc.

Every year in Ontario people head out on Lake Simcoe with their fishing huts and sleds. They have a good time all winter long, and when the spring thaw happens the warnings go out that the ice is unsafe. Stay off! But every year people fall through and drown.

Yes the ice isn't 100% safe in the middle of January, there's always the chance that you'll stand on a weak spot, a crack, or fall though somebody's hole or something. But that seems like a reasonable chance to take.

It just seems like most avalanche deaths occur during an avalanche warning period.
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post #18 of 42 (permalink) Old 03-23-2012, 12:21 PM
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Originally Posted by Donutz View Post
One of my pet peeves is that people don't understand statistics. "Low probability" doesn't mean "won't happen". A one percent chance means that one time out of 100, it probably WILL happen. So unless what you're doing is 100% safe, accept that sometimes things will go south.
I agree. That's what I'm wondering. Did they

a. Miss something

b. Something went wrong and nothing can be done


I'm just wondering which it is. I'm mot saying the guides are going to protect you either. I'm just saying that if A. is what happened then the guide shouldn't have missed something. Which I get mistakes happen, just saying that in that situation gotta be real careful and do your best to make sure you don't miss something.

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Originally Posted by 2hipp4u View Post
Im all for having fun, showing your tits and getting fucked up on a river float but it can be done without being a pig.
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post #19 of 42 (permalink) Old 03-23-2012, 12:28 PM
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For a bunch of people with no backcountry experience, avy awareness training, or real information about what actually happened there sure is a lot of supposition and conclusion-jumping in this thread.
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post #20 of 42 (permalink) Old 03-23-2012, 01:19 PM
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For a bunch of people with no backcountry experience, avy awareness training, or real information about what actually happened there sure is a lot of supposition and conclusion-jumping in this thread.
Okay what are your thoughts? I think we're just having a healthy discussion in here, not sure if anybody's reached any "conclusions" yet...
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