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Old 10-25-2012, 12:57 PM   #1 (permalink)
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Was hoping the Euro model would prove to be an outlier when the chatter on this started, but looks like the models are coming to a stronger consensus. Still time for things to change so anyone on the east coast should start hoping this thing doesn't do what it could do. Could see MAJOR damage from the coast to the mountains and everywhere in between. Would not be a good thing for a lot of resorts out here especially after the damage from irene and with the winter we had last year.



From Jeff Masters:

The Northeast U.S. scenario
If Sandy makes landfall farther to the north near Maine and Nova Scotia, heavy rains will be the main threat, since the cold waters will weaken the storm significantly before landfall. The trees have fewer leaves farther to the north, which will reduce the amount of tree damage and power failures compared to a more southerly track. However, given that ocean temperatures along the Northeast U.S. coast are about 5F above average, there will be an unusually large amount of water vapor available to make heavy rain. If the trough of low pressure approaching the East Coast taps into the large reservoir of cold air over Canada and pulls down a significant amount of Arctic air, the potential exists for the unusually moist air from Sandy to collide with this cold air from Canada and unleash the heaviest October rains ever recorded in the Northeast U.S., Nova Scotia, and New Brunswick. This Northeast U.S. scenario would probably cause damages near $100 million dollars.

The mid-Atlantic U.S. scenario
Landfall along the mid-Atlantic coast on Monday, as predicted by the ECMWF and NOGAPS models, would likely be a billion-dollar disaster. In this scenario, Sandy would be able to bring sustained winds near hurricane force over a wide stretch of heavily populated coast, causing massive power outages, as trees still in leaf fall and take out power lines. Sandy is expected to have tropical storm-force winds that extend out more than 300 miles from the center, which will drive a much larger storm surge than its winds would ordinarily suggest. The full moon is on Monday, which means astronomical tides will be at their peak for the month, increasing potential storm surge flooding. Fresh water flooding from heavy rains would also be a huge concern. Given the ECMWF's consistent handling of Sandy, I believe this mid-Atlantic scenario has a higher probability of occurring than the Northeast U.S. scenario. However, it is likely that the models are overdoing the strength of Sandy at landfall. The models have trouble handling the transition from tropical storm to extratropical storm in these type of situations, and I expect that the 940 mb central pressure of Sandy predicted at landfall Monday in Delaware by the ECMWF model is substantially overdone.

Last edited by SnowRock; 10-25-2012 at 12:59 PM.
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Old 10-25-2012, 07:06 PM   #2 (permalink)
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Irene did major damage up at Killington last year. The whole access road was taken out. They surely can't take another hit like that especially this late in October. Hopefully I don't lose power here in Connecticut.
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Old 10-25-2012, 08:01 PM   #3 (permalink)
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Ya Irene wrecked Killington, especially their Skyeship gondola. Im probably the only one on the forum looking forward to this hurricane because its gonna bring some massive surf to the north-east and we haven't had much surf this year.
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Old 10-25-2012, 09:02 PM   #4 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RightCoastShred View Post
Ya Irene wrecked Killington, especially their Skyeship gondola. Im probably the only one on the forum looking forward to this hurricane because its gonna bring some massive surf to the north-east and we haven't had much surf this year.
Only surf a little here and there and certainly no expert, but is this really expected to bring good surf from NJ up? I don't think we are going to have what they might get this weekend in say Fla. We are looking at a direct landfall somewhere from del to maine probably. Don't think that brings what the "original" perfect storm brought or say a hurricane earl/bill or regular nor'easter. Look at the winds forecasted... even sunday it might not be manageable in many spots maybe up by you depending upon your break? Farther south though you could already be looking at NNE winds >20mph.

On the back end I think in NJ we will be happy if we still have a beach if this thing goes down like it might. Hoping it doesn't... have lots of family and friends that live on the shore.

Personally I'm worried about the sustained TS strength winds combined with the fact that my house is basically in a damn forrest.
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Old 10-25-2012, 09:24 PM   #5 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SnowRock View Post
Personally I'm worried about the sustained TS strength winds combined with the fact that my house is basically in a damn forrest.

Lost power for a week after Irene and a good portion of my fence got wrecked by a tree. Actually got lucky it was only the fence and not the house, sure was a close call. Definitely NOT looking forward to this shit again.
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Old 10-26-2012, 12:11 AM   #6 (permalink)
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With unseasonable hot weather it does not look good.
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