11-15-2007, 05:46 AM
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#1 (permalink)
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AASI Instructor
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: Mt. Hood Oregon
Posts: 4,058
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Mt. Hood Meadows Weather
Like the rest of you across the country, we are on pins and needles here wondering about our weather on mt. Hood and what to expect. I think matt`s blog at Mt. Hood Meadows has some interesting insight about the weather patterns that are so unique to Mt. Hood and it`s maritime location.
Quote:
The Art of Weather Forecasting
Hi Folks!
So when will Mt. Hood Meadows open for the 2007-2008 season? What’s the long range forecast for this season? What’s the short range forecast? What’s all this talk about a “la Nina” and what does it mean? These are among the many great weather related questions that our curious riders and skiers have been asking, so we thought it might be interesting to share some of our weather forecast data and techniques with you. We are also curious about the means and methods our guests use to make their own weather forecasts – both scientific and non-scientific.
But first -- this disclaimer. Mt. Hood, and Mt. Hood Meadows in particular, is its own micro-climate. Weather systems can and frequently do approach Mt. Hood Meadows from all directions and can vary significantly from forecasted weather patterns. Additionally, it is not uncommon for the weather at Mt. Hood Meadows to change throughout the course of the day – blue bird in the morning, then snow at lunch, a little wind later in the afternoon, then clear and calm by twilight. Sometimes the weather can change radically and rapidly -- ever been at the top of Cascade Express when a fast moving system suddenly descends upon you like a scene from a B horror movie?
This is the nature of the unique maritime weather conditions that Mt. Hood is known for. Mt. Hood Meadows location on the southeast flank of Mt. Hood benefits at times from high desert weather conditions further to the east. Often in the early morning it is cloudy and/or precipitating from Portland to White River, but as you round the next corner the peak of Mt. Hood magically appears through patches of blue sky!
Our team regularly uses several different sources to collect and analyze weather data at Mt. Hood Meadows. The most popular of the sources are linked to on our conditions page Conditions and include the National Weather Service Forecast for the top of Mt. Hood Express and at the Main Base Lodge, the USFS Northwest Weather and Avalanche Center Northern Oregon Forecast (typically starts forecasting in mid-November), and Snow-Forecast.com – forecast for Mt. Hood Meadows. We also research weather data and analytics provided by the Oregon Climate Service (“OCS”) – see Welcome to the Oregon Climate Service -- which is located on the Oregon State University campus, and is the state of Oregon’s repository for weather and climate information. OCS is also affiliated with OSU’s College of Oceanic and Atmospheric Services (“COAS”). Collectively, these data sources start to paint an interesting forecast of weather conditions out approximately five to ten days. On average, these forecasts are pretty accurate out about 24 to 36 hours. Longer range forecasts are typically about as accurate as the radar-based forecasts you see on the local evening news.
MATT'S NOTE: I updated this section of the blog to accurately reflect George Taylor's winter forecast which you can find at: Fall & Winter Forecast, 2007-2008
Late this past summer, George Taylor, Oregon State University Climatologist released his annual fall and winter forecast which is based on analyzing numerous oceanic and atmospheric conditions and comparing them to similar years in the past. “One of the key factors is whether we are in any kind of an El Niño or La Niña year,” Taylor said, “. . . it is difficult to predict and there are often wide variations in forecasts from different agencies and models. For example:
Climate Prediction Center: La Niña in the fall slowly fading through the winter and spring.
Climate Diagnostics Center (Canonical Correlation Analysis): La Niña developing and continuing.
Climate Diagnostics Center (Linear Inverse Modeling): La Niña developing and continuing."
Taylor's expectation for this winter, "Overall we are predicting western Oregon conditions to be somewhat cooler and wetter than average, with a good chance of at least one low elevation snow event. Central and eastern Oregon are expected to have warmer than average temperatures and average precipitation.
"After a slow start, we expect mountain snows to accumulate quickly in November and remain mostly good throughout the winter. January and February mountain snows are expected to be significant. All in all, we anticipate a very good ski season!"
So specifically, OCS is forecasting the following weather conditions for this fall and winter:- Temperatures will be slightly cooler than average in western Oregon and warmer than average east of the Cascades.
- Average to somewhat above-average precipitation.
- Good chance of low elevation snow in western Oregon.
- Above average snowpack in the mountains.
Professional and amateur meteorologists get together to discuss their respective climate research and weather forecasts every year. The Oregon Chapter of the American Meteorological Society will be hosting the 15th annual "What will the Winter be like?" meeting this year on Friday, November 9th at OMSI. The Secretary of the chapter is Fox 12 Meterologist Drew Jackson. Here's Drew's assessment of this winter's forecasted La Nina - and what it should bring to Mt. Hood: "In my own research, there have been 11 winter seasons with weak La Nina conditions since 1950. In 5 of those 11 winters, the total seasonal snowfall at Government Camp was above average. Surprisingly, 6 of those 11 winters had below-average snowfall. However, there have been 8 winter seasons featuring strong La Nina conditions since 1950, and in 7 of those 8 seasons, Government Camp had significantly above-average snowfall." (Drew Jackson, KPTV FOX 12 Meteorologist, Secretary, Oregon Chapter of the AMS)
Oregonians know that weather forecasting is part science and part art – and they love to talk about the weather. There are other sources of weather forecasting data for the Northern Cascades and Mt. Hood such as HatchCam.com and the local TV station websites. What are some or your favorite weather forecasting sources or techniques? Heard any good non-traditional forecaster, like the height that certain vegetation may be growing, quality of bug hatches, migratory patterns of wildlife, or how thick your beard is growing in? And what do YOU think this winter will like on Mt. Hood? Give us a post – we’d love to hear from you!
-- Matt
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Mt. Hood Meadows Weather
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