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Will the 2020/2021 season go ahead in your opinion?

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I feel you! I might consider it if they took the windows out and let me ride it alone... so if it was just like riding a chair!
They will probably reduce the number of people allowed in each cab, and maybe require you to be wearing a mask. And they'll have the windows open.
 

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Discussion Starter #23
Are we thinking international travel will still be banned or just ‘discouraged’?

I could only imagine how scary the lift lines would be if they are limiting the numbers on chairlifts/gondolas especially if international visitors are allowed to come
 

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Are we thinking international travel will still be banned or just ‘discouraged’?

I could only imagine how scary the lift lines would be if they are limiting the numbers on chairlifts/gondolas especially if international visitors are allowed to come
Again, I'm talking Whistler-specific, but a lot of this probably applies to other locations as well.

It's not just a possible ban on international travel. It's also availability of accommodations. IMO, hotels and such will be the last things to recover from this, because of the huge increased costs and requirements for cleaning up after guests. Hotels depend on being nearly full during peak times as part of their business model (kind of like restaurants that way), so if they have to (ferex) only rent every second room, or take a room out of rotation for 24 hrs after it's been used, it will make it very difficult for them to run profitably. Big chains can ride it out, but the small boutique places will probably just stay shut.

If i had to guess what'll happen in Whistler, I'd say maybe half the hotels will be open, there will be little or no foreign visitors, even US visits will be down. The mountain will reduce gondola capacity to max 4 (and you have to be wearing a mask), and the express chairs to 50% to maintain some space. But with user counts way down, it probably won't be as bad as it sounds.

A lot of restaurants will stay closed because they either can't turn a profit at 50% capacity or there just aren't enough visitors to keep all the restaurants and pubs busy. There's a lot of overlap in the retail businesses, so there will be some attrition there as well.

BUT, and this is a big but, if you can get there, there will be snowboarding. All else is detail.
 

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Are we thinking international travel will still be banned or just ‘discouraged’?

I could only imagine how scary the lift lines would be if they are limiting the numbers on chairlifts/gondolas especially if international visitors are allowed to come
International will or should be banned including the states, but we'll see if our PM will have the balls to keep the borders closed for non essential travel.
Definitely going to be interesting seeing how they deal with limiting lift capacity while also dealing with the inevitable lift lines it will cause. At least we will already have face and eye protections in place.
Little we can do except wait and see.
 

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Discussion Starter #26
Again, I'm talking Whistler-specific, but a lot of this probably applies to other locations as well.

It's not just a possible ban on international travel. It's also availability of accommodations. IMO, hotels and such will be the last things to recover from this, because of the huge increased costs and requirements for cleaning up after guests. Hotels depend on being nearly full during peak times as part of their business model (kind of like restaurants that way), so if they have to (ferex) only rent every second room, or take a room out of rotation for 24 hrs after it's been used, it will make it very difficult for them to run profitably. Big chains can ride it out, but the small boutique places will probably just stay shut.

If i had to guess what'll happen in Whistler, I'd say maybe half the hotels will be open, there will be little or no foreign visitors, even US visits will be down. The mountain will reduce gondola capacity to max 4 (and you have to be wearing a mask), and the express chairs to 50% to maintain some space. But with user counts way down, it probably won't be as bad as it sounds.

A lot of restaurants will stay closed because they either can't turn a profit at 50% capacity or there just aren't enough visitors to keep all the restaurants and pubs busy. There's a lot of overlap in the retail businesses, so there will be some attrition there as well.

BUT, and this is a big but, if you can get there, there will be snowboarding. All else is detail.
Excellently detailed response man, made me a think a lot. I’m wondering with the logic you’re using with accommodations, how any of them at all will be able to stay above the profit threshold if there’s a limit on capacity, and not just some of them? Even the Fairmont chain in Banff and Lake Louise had to shut down because of the virus, I can’t even imagine what their daily operating costs are.

Wonder if Epic and Ikon will take a massive hit with people more likely to buy local passes due to travel restrictions?
 

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Discussion Starter #27
International will or should be banned including the states, but we'll see if our PM will have the balls to keep the borders closed for non essential travel.
Definitely going to be interesting seeing how they deal with limiting lift capacity while also dealing with the inevitable lift lines it will cause. At least we will already have face and eye protections in place.
Little we can do except wait and see.
Yeah you’re right man, not really a lot we can do except speculate. I’m just interested in hearing everybody’s take on it.

A lot of big companies will be pressuring the politicians to open up earlier than safe. Will be interesting to see what happens
 

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Again, I'm talking Whistler-specific, but a lot of this probably applies to other locations as well.

It's not just a possible ban on international travel. It's also availability of accommodations. IMO, hotels and such will be the last things to recover from this, because of the huge increased costs and requirements for cleaning up after guests. Hotels depend on being nearly full during peak times as part of their business model (kind of like restaurants that way), so if they have to (ferex) only rent every second room, or take a room out of rotation for 24 hrs after it's been used, it will make it very difficult for them to run profitably. Big chains can ride it out, but the small boutique places will probably just stay shut.

If i had to guess what'll happen in Whistler, I'd say maybe half the hotels will be open, there will be little or no foreign visitors, even US visits will be down. The mountain will reduce gondola capacity to max 4 (and you have to be wearing a mask), and the express chairs to 50% to maintain some space. But with user counts way down, it probably won't be as bad as it sounds.

A lot of restaurants will stay closed because they either can't turn a profit at 50% capacity or there just aren't enough visitors to keep all the restaurants and pubs busy. There's a lot of overlap in the retail businesses, so there will be some attrition there as well.

BUT, and this is a big but, if you can get there, there will be snowboarding. All else is detail.
I know at this stage the cleaning Company with our joint down the snow won't come in until 3 days after to do a clean. This could change though as we are shutdown till 01/07/20 anyway.
 

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I'm hoping Banff is open for business come next season. I was booked to go there and had to cancel a day before the travel date (3/15). I watched so much videos of the Big 3 resorts leading up the trip, I'm still stoked about riding at those resorts (Rock Garden looks sick). I plan on going next year if it's open and operating.
 

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Discussion Starter #30
I'm hoping Banff is open for business come next season. I was booked to go there and had to cancel a day before the travel date (3/15). I watched so much videos of the Big 3 resorts leading up the trip, I'm still stoked about riding at those resorts (Rock Garden looks sick). I plan on going next year if it's open and operating.
I got 3 days riding in Early March at LakeLouise right before they shut it all down. First day was a 6” day, second was a 12”, and rode the rock garden on the last day on an 2-3” day with good cover, was so fun! The terrain is insane at Louise
 

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I was thinking the split board/sled set up would be the absolute worst case scenario
Well prepare for the worse, hope for the best. But I think you missed some points. If you have a split board, you can ride, despite if anything is open or closed, you can still ride it if the lifts are running, you can get away from folks if its crowded with long lift lines or social distancing. Main point, with the solar minimum happening, as long as there is precip, there will be snow...perhaps deep fluffy snow...and if its ridiculousness and the lifts don't spin or are late...guess who gets the goodies?
 

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Here's the other thing. Many small resorts are operate on a shoe string and the larger ones are debt leveraged to their tits. In either case, resorts need a predictable/bare mimium of visitors to operate and/or to service their debt or break even. As we all know, riding is about the consumer having disposable/discreationary income. This economic lock down has been devastating for many and therefore folks are saving/not spending $ in anticipation of needing it for the basic items that are also on an inflationary trend. Its a perfect shit storm for many. I'd imagine some carnies can't afford to hang out at the circus cause their off-season money gig is not happening this summer. Anyway there are very few resorts that are big enough,have also been fiscally conservative and not taken on alot of debt and have a dedicated and flush consumer/rider/skier base. Which means very few places can rely on their season pass holders, who basically cover the cost of operations for the season and are not indebted to greedy share holders/venture capitalist or the bank. Economically it doesn't look good, and if I were OP, I'd be looking to get a dependable split rig together right meow.
 

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Here's the other thing. Many small resorts are operate on a shoe string and the larger ones are debt leveraged to their tits. In either case, resorts need a predictable/bare mimium of visitors to operate and/or to service their debt or break even. As we all know, riding is about the consumer having disposable/discreationary income. This economic lock down has been devastating for many and therefore folks are saving/not spending $ in anticipation of needing it for the basic items that are also on an inflationary trend. Its a perfect shit storm for many. I'd imagine some carnies can't afford to hang out at the circus cause their off-season money gig is not happening this summer. Anyway there are very few resorts that are big enough,have also been fiscally conservative and not taken on alot of debt and have a dedicated and flush consumer/rider/skier base. Which means very few places can rely on their season pass holders, who basically cover the cost of operations for the season and are not indebted to greedy share holders/venture capitalist or the bank. Economically it doesn't look good, and if I were OP, I'd be looking to get a dependable split rig together right meow.
100% right on the resorts but in actuality not so much on the individual and household budgets. This is something not relly being discussed.

The brunt of the economic hit from Corona is being take on by the poorest citizens, people who never had the discretionary money for such a luxury sport as skiing/snowboarding. Middle and upper class Americans are actually largely being spared (hence the widespread acceptance of full blown lockdown). Job losses are service industry jobs, warehouse workers, blue collar, low income positions. The rest of the country are still going to work be it in their separated offices or just working from home, are salaried and get paid no matter what, etc. In fact many of these people are seeing their net worth increase. Many got stimulus checks, they're driving and commuting less, theyre saving money on going out to eat and drink, pocketing all the money they would have spent on vacations that they now can't. I personally have about 4k extra in my bank account since the shutdown and I am FAR from a rarity.

For a measurable reference this is really creating an economic boom in certain areas. In the last month and a half our wake and skate sales are actually up over 110% compared to the same time frame last year (an increase that is literally unimaginable). Boat sales are having record start to the year for companies, these are luxury items poor people who aren't working wouldn't have been buying anyway, same as ski passes.

The economy is going to suffer greatly from this but not universally. Just as targeted as the virus is on old people, the economic fallout will be extremely targeted. You'll see the death of many businesses that were already on their way out and then tons of poor people being sent in to insurmountable holes while everyone else gets to carry on with their life.
 

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Discussion Starter #37
Well prepare for the worse, hope for the best. But I think you missed some points. If you have a split board, you can ride, despite if anything is open or closed, you can still ride it if the lifts are running, you can get away from folks if its crowded with long lift lines or social distancing. Main point, with the solar minimum happening, as long as there is precip, there will be snow...perhaps deep fluffy snow...and if its ridiculousness and the lifts don't spin or are late...guess who gets the goodies?
yeah like I’m not against the idea, it’s just an expensive cost to start with a good reliable sled, splitboard skin setup etc
 

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Discussion Starter #38
100% right on the resorts but in actuality not so much on the individual and household budgets. This is something not relly being discussed.

The brunt of the economic hit from Corona is being take on by the poorest citizens, people who never had the discretionary money for such a luxury sport as skiing/snowboarding. Middle and upper class Americans are actually largely being spared (hence the widespread acceptance of full blown lockdown). Job losses are service industry jobs, warehouse workers, blue collar, low income positions. The rest of the country are still going to work be it in their separated offices or just working from home, are salaried and get paid no matter what, etc. In fact many of these people are seeing their net worth increase. Many got stimulus checks, they're driving and commuting less, theyre saving money on going out to eat and drink, pocketing all the money they would have spent on vacations that they now can't. I personally have about 4k extra in my bank account since the shutdown and I am FAR from a rarity.

For a measurable reference this is really creating an economic boom in certain areas. In the last month and a half our wake and skate sales are actually up over 110% compared to the same time frame last year (an increase that is literally unimaginable). Boat sales are having record start to the year for companies, these are luxury items poor people who aren't working wouldn't have been buying anyway, same as ski passes.

The economy is going to suffer greatly from this but not universally. Just as targeted as the virus is on old people, the economic fallout will be extremely targeted. You'll see the death of many businesses that were already on their way out and then tons of poor people being sent in to insurmountable holes while everyone else gets to carry on with their life.
Makes a lot of sense man, I think I’m in the same position as you, I’m actually saving money more than spending than I ever was simplydue to the fact that I’ve been forced to live a simpler life inside. I still have work aswell though.

I’m in a perfect position to now spend money on season passes after the lockdown is lifted, and I’m sure a lot of people in my demographic are in similar a situation?
 

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100% right on the resorts but in actuality not so much on the individual and household budgets. This is something not relly being discussed.

The brunt of the economic hit from Corona is being take on by the poorest citizens, people who never had the discretionary money for such a luxury sport as skiing/snowboarding. Middle and upper class Americans are actually largely being spared (hence the widespread acceptance of full blown lockdown). Job losses are service industry jobs, warehouse workers, blue collar, low income positions. The rest of the country are still going to work be it in their separated offices or just working from home, are salaried and get paid no matter what, etc. In fact many of these people are seeing their net worth increase. Many got stimulus checks, they're driving and commuting less, theyre saving money on going out to eat and drink, pocketing all the money they would have spent on vacations that they now can't. I personally have about 4k extra in my bank account since the shutdown and I am FAR from a rarity.

For a measurable reference this is really creating an economic boom in certain areas. In the last month and a half our wake and skate sales are actually up over 110% compared to the same time frame last year (an increase that is literally unimaginable). Boat sales are having record start to the year for companies, these are luxury items poor people who aren't working wouldn't have been buying anyway, same as ski passes.

The economy is going to suffer greatly from this but not universally. Just as targeted as the virus is on old people, the economic fallout will be extremely targeted. You'll see the death of many businesses that were already on their way out and then tons of poor people being sent in to insurmountable holes while everyone else gets to carry on with their life.
Hey Lab...I don't disagree with you. Infact my assets are also increasing. But I'd like to know the indebted/household liabilities vs assets of the average middle class...particularly folks between 25-55yrs old without the high risk of becoming underwater. Being an old geezer, I really don't see how folks can afford the inflated cost of living of the escalated housing, health, child care, education, auto, service fees and taxes. By the sheer luck of being at the tail end of the boomer era, dumb luck timing and ect. I'm am completely debt free, relatively healthy, the kids are launched. However if I was carrying a mortage, student loan and car payment...I could make it (did it for years) but it would be skinny. But being a geezer, I absoutely refuse to buy a new or relatively new car, boat or most any new durable goods despite low interest rates.
 

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Hey Lab...I don't disagree with you. Infact my assets are also increasing. But I'd like to know the indebted/household liabilities vs assets of the average middle class...particularly folks between 25-55yrs old without the high risk of becoming underwater. Being an old geezer, I really don't see how folks can afford the inflated cost of living of the escalated housing, health, child care, education, auto, service fees and taxes. By the sheer luck of being at the tail end of the boomer era, dumb luck timing and ect. I'm am completely debt free, relatively healthy, the kids are launched. However if I was carrying a mortage, student loan and car payment...I could make it (did it for years) but it would be skinny. But being a geezer, I absoutely refuse to buy a new or relatively new car, boat or most any new durable goods despite low interest rates.
Debt. Insurmountable, unsustainable massive amounts of debt that will never get fully paid. We owe the government 30k in student loans, another 15k to private loans, we have a couple thousand in credit card debt, and so on and so forth. And most of it will just get eaten by the system when we die.

Either way, economic fallout from Corona specifically for winter sport families should be minimal and thus the real hit will just be lost revenue from the early closure of this season. So lets all sit back and watch the poorest get kicked while they're down and the rest of us just sit and wait to see when lifts start turning again!

All that being said the fact that multiple ski resorts are already back up and running, barring a severe set back it seems likely that we'll largely be able to get a full close to normal season in next year. This lockdown really only lasted 2 months so we could do this 3 or 4 more times before we get back in to peak riding.
 
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